Let's brainstorm...

One of the most common ways for people to support or oppose a project in Cape Breton is to start with their gut instinct and then cherry-pick anything that supports that instinct. And dismiss anything that doesn’t. It happens everywhere, but our heightened level of desperation (and the distrust that accompanies it) amplifies the effect.

But we still need to start asking good questions and doing our best to understand the business case for proposed projects.

When the news leaked that the federal government was about to build an $18 Million airport next to our premium golf courses, the proponents seemed like they were caught with their golf pants down.

So, they quickly released a brochure-style case designed more to secure government funding than make a business case for the airport itself. For those who deal in business plans, for the most part, it’s likely recognized as far from sufficient. But for those who support the project, it was welcomed reinforcement of their instinct.

The media is currently being flooded with full-page ad boosters, and competing op-eds, and letters to the editor - sometimes multiple per day in the same paper. And, as would be expected, it’s heavily infused with bias. If you’ve read to this point, you’re already picking up on my own.

At first glance, it seems like it’s a cool idea (think John Travolta landing in his back yard), but would it be a good regional investment, or a weak one with a high opportunity cost? I don’t think that’s yet been definitively established.

My morning coffee is three-quarters done and a little too close to room temperature now for my liking. So I’m not going to attempt to offer that definitive take, yay or nay.

However, I do see people raising some compelling viewpoints on why this might not be a great idea, and I’m wholly unconvinced by a collection of testimonials by politicians and bureaucrats as reliable indicators. My bias will always lean towards business professionals, including people like Adrian White who seems to be more convinced than I am at this point.

What I will offer are some brainstorming points that have occurred to me as I’ve contemplated the idea. Some of these points may contort the neural noodles of those who would prefer to simply cherry-pick supporting points, one way or another, and be done with it.

Give these points the once over, and weigh them against your current thinking to see if it jogs anything else loose. Maybe it’ll be useful. Maybe not.

NSCC Marconi Campus Relocation
The NSCC Marconi campus move to Sydney is in the works. The basics of the idea are to concentrate students and staff in the downtown to help boost activity and commerce. However, it also represents moving an existing resource that is currently operating well, while incurring a cost of tens of millions. While CBU may have designs on the vacant building that will be left behind for expansion (i.e. International student enrollment growth), that asset that is left behind is similar to arguments of what might happen to the Port Hawkesbury airport. If private air travellers prefer the new location, that existing resource is likely in trouble.

Sydney Container Port - Novaporte
For anyone that believes that the Sydney container port is in any way viable, the primary sticking point offered by the proponents is securing a shipping company that will commit to operating there. For the Cabot Links airport, the equivalent is securing an air carrier that will actually commit to scheduling regular seasonal service. Any of the positive economic outcomes floated in the business case that was released hinge upon it. WestJet ruled themselves out. The business case would have been much stronger if they had announced commitments from another carrier with a specific schedule.

Sydney’s Second Berth
With delays in the construction of Sydney’s second berth at the Joan Harriss Cruise Pavilion, one observation made possible was how the number of ships, passengers, and crew numbers that visit the port was increasing even with the absence of the second berth. Depending on projections of continued growth in the industry (primarily the number of ships), one could consider that as either an argument for lack of need for the second berth, or an argument for why the growth will demand it at some point in the future. With an existing airport at Port Hawkesbury, it’s analogous to the primary berth in Sydney in that it is currently able to handle existing private air traffic. The Cabot Links airport could be considered the second berth that is not required, or the second berth that is required depending on your perspective (and whether you believe it’s about commercial or private air traffic).

Yarmouth Ferry Investment - Bay Ferries
The Yarmouth ferry to/from Bar Harbor, when operating, has clear value to the province. What is generally contested is whether there's a big enough ROI for the level of investment Nova Scotia is making and whether we’re simply paying for more than we need to pay. The most valid criticisms are for the sloppiness of how it’s all being handled by the province - including MLAs on the file who don’t seem to be up to speed (MacLellan/Hines). For the Cabot Links airport, this is a cautionary tale about government management and why their enthusiasm may not be a great indicator of the value or merit of a project. The level of increased value to the region the airport would bring is still a matter of contention.

The Halifax Airport in Enfield, NS
The Halifax airport isn’t in Halifax. It’s a 30-minute drive away. That’s not uncommon. A lot happens at an airport. Taking off and landing is noisy, and a buffer zone is typically required. The question would be how far the actual Cabot Links airport would be located from the course. Every minute of additional drive-time diminishes the value proposition when compared to the drive-time from the Port Hawkesbury airport. The specific location hasn’t been disclosed yet. It would also be interesting to examine the drive-time/distance between the primary airport and each of the top 100 golf courses in the world. This, of course, is relevant primarily to private air traffic, if the presumption is there is no way to upgrade the Port Hastings location to also handle commercial traffic.

Expensive Sydney Flights
One of the reasons many people who live in or near Sydney (which has an airport) drive all the way to the Halifax airport is ticket cost. The mere presence of an airport in a location is clearly not the only factor in how commercial air travellers choose. We don’t know what the fares might be to Inverness, but small airports are going to be more costly than the hubs. For multiple travellers together, that increased cost can quickly tip the balance towards flying into the main airport (Halifax) and renting a car to drive to the intended destination. If you break down the demographics of flyers the Cabot Links airport would propose are their target, for some of them, the cost considerations will factor heavily. However, an argument could also be made that there is a demographic of affluent golfers who cannot afford to charter private jets (or own one of their own), but are not price sensitive to ticket cost variations of hundreds to over a thousand dollars per ticket. They might opt to pay the extra to avoid the drive time (with the presumption that commercial air traffic to Inverness could be secured).

The Cabot Trail Driving Experience
One point to note is that the Cabot Trail's tourism draw largely has appeal as a driving experience. Thus, in terms of the airport case towards its impact on overall tourism, for the segment of visitors that are intent on driving the trail, flying to the destination is a less significant value proposition.

400 Golfers a Day

For the combined Cabot Links and Cabot Cliffs, the maximum capacity per day is about 400 golfers, from all sources including local (provincially-originating) areas, or visitors using other methods of arrival. So the question would then become how much of the daily capacity is under-utilized for which a new airport would be able to fill? If there is low tee-time availability at present, this would diminish the ROI of adding a costly method of filling that capacity (i.e. a new airport). Of course, this is in terms of the effect only on the golf courses themselves, not other tourism operators.

That’s all for now. My coffee is gone. Give it some thought.

NOTE: The views expressed above are my own and do not represent lokol (goCapeBreton.com). Read more