Nova Scotia Conservative Party leader Jaime Baille announced he is stepping down this week. With rumours that party leadership is a role previously coveted by current CBRM mayor Cecil Clarke, and one he could pursue with a return to provincial politics, this presents an opportunity to contemplate the next steps in Clarke's career... and some of the obstacles.

A man who considers himself married to politics and who has already announced that he's in his last term as mayor of the CBRM isn't likely to slip away into obscurity anytime soon.

The obvious targets would be his relatively good odds of returning as an MLA, and relatively great odds of becoming a Member of Parliament if Eyking decides to retire his Federal cheque-writing pen. 

Jumping back into provincial politics in a Liberal-run province that survived the turmoil of the last election is probably not the most compelling goal for him.

Getting in range of Eyking in his failed MP bid looms as a job undone. The problem is that while he has successfully increased his profile in the CBRM, the last election revealed that he only narrowly secured the win with a tiny flood-assisted victory over MacSween.

A lack of success in moving major projects to completion throughout his first mayoral term, and considerable doubt that he'll make major progress before his departure, is likely a good predictor of the potential for a continued decline in public confidence in his leadership. 

If Clarke resigns as CBRM mayor early for a Federal run, he'll have even less time to slingshot into his MP bid with a fresh, large-scale achievement.

He may be left running on moving forward with the expensive (but necessary) wastewater treatment facility for Sydney harbour. The cruise ship second berth project completion would be his best resume builder, but that has major risks of either missing its timelines by years or not getting done at all. Though it looks like a sure thing, failure to secure the land to build it on means the odds of success have to price in the uncertainty.

We're unlikely to see a CBRM charter. It's unlikely he'll risk doing anything meaningful in the equalization arena. The tax cap will be so frightening to homeowners across the province, most politicians will be afraid of moving forward with it.

Top off the lack of achievement with the souring messages sent through communities losing their ice surfaces, and the recent trend towards New Dawn and Membertou taking over leadership of tangible economic development efforts, and the bid gets even more challenging.

That's all relevant before Senator Dan Christmas dropped everyone's chins to the floor, revealing apparently serious intent on pursuing the idea of Cape Breton as its own independent provincial body. That newly sparked discussion will cast a big shadow that will be difficult for Clarke to step out of in 2017/2018 unless Christmas backs away from the suggestion.

If Clarke ends up having a substandard mayoral list of achievements to work with, the task at hand will already be a significant challenge. However, Clarke will face additional pressure from those who might be considered foes and will also need to very carefully manage relationships with his key allies over the next few years.

Here are five people that could have a significant impact on Mayor Clarke's success in his remaining time as CBRM mayor.

John Whalley

Whalley is the former CBRM Economic Development Officer. Now with an executive role at New Dawn, he has an outstanding lawsuit against the CBRM for "constructive dismissal". He alleged a conflict of interest within the CBRM, and the then-CAO Michael Merritt pulled him off of the port file he had been leading. If Whalley wins his case and his allegations turn out to be fact, that information will be a major blow to Mayor Clarke. However, there's no certainty that lawsuit won't quietly disappear if it hasn't already. There is reasonable criticism, abundant skepticism, and even moderate levels of conspiracy theory circulating about the port file. A problematic outcome in the Whalley case will further stoke that fire.

Rankin MacSween

MacSween is most likely finished with efforts to return for another mayoral run. But that hasn't stopped him as leader of New Dawn with pushing forward with achievements for the CBRM. The more achievements that happen independently by Membertou and by Rankin's team in the heart of the Sydney downtown will create a further contrast with the lack of progress during the Clarke mayoral terms. New Dawn now has the CBRM in a squeeze play with their recent request for money to unlock Federal funding for the expansion of the New Dawn Centre for Social Innovation. How can the CBRM say no to that request? They either support the New Dawn success or jeopardize it. They have the choice of a minor role in its success or a major role in its failure. For that matter, Deputy Mayor Eldon MacDonald, is also going to have to step up as a strong advocate or most certainly jeopardize his likely aspirations for a viable mayoral run.

Jerry Nickerson

Nickerson has one of the most powerful grips on Cecil Clarke's mayoral resume. He owns the land where the second berth is intended to be built and he wants about $4.5 Million more for the land than the CBRM estimated when it secured thirds of the project budget from the provincial and federal government. Not only is it more money out of taxpayers pockets in the CBRM, failing to close the deal jeopardizes the timelines which are already likely to miss the 2018 cruise season. There are also hints at expropriation, which Nickerson will likely fight. It's surely in his financial best interest to do so. You see, it's hard to convince a landowner with property next to the harbour's largest asset that his land isn't worth what he's asking... after promising that the harbour will soon have a $1-2 Billion container port and logistics park built, an expanded cruise terminal, a waterfront that will emulate the experience in downtown Halifax, and a billionaire coal baron building a road from Donkin to the vicinity of your property. What that does is project a significant increase in prospective future value of that land. If all those promises were to materialize, perhaps Nickerson would be justified in not being in such a hurry to part with his land after all. Or perhaps he has designs on becoming a landlord to the port corporation, not unlike the CBRM to McKeil on the other side of the harbour. Note: You may have noticed that Nickerson didn't get a caricature in the headline photo. I couldn't find a media photo of him.

Marlene Usher

Usher is the Port of Sydney Development Corporation CEO, and yet she constantly seems to be treated more like a scapegoat than one of the CBRM's most highly paid executives. Removal of the port file from the port corporation hasn't lead to full separation from the projects. She still is stuck administering the dwindling funds in the trust account originally set aside to pay for the harbour's required navigational aids. In a recent CBRM council meeting where she attended to answer councillors' questions about port finances, Mayor Clarke demonstrated a propensity to cut the CEO off from her explanations as though he felt her own answers were insufficient. That's a strategic mistake to make with a key ally, especially when you've just hired that key ally's sister, Marie Walsh, as the most powerful executive in the CBRM within her new role as Chief Administrative Officer. If these power players decide they don't like how things are going, they could switch roles from rescue boats to torpedo boats. It's probably a very good strategic idea to let the port CEO speak for herself in future presentations to the CBRM.

Barry Sheehy

Sheehy was the face of the port marketers Harbor Port Development Partners (now Sydney Harbour Investment Partners) in the beginning. He's since been more in the background as his partner Albert Barbusci became the go-to man in media coverage of activities related to container port development. In the absence of actual port development, the SHIP partners have been successful with marketing the idea of consortium building and potential deals lining up to a local audience. There are certainly critics. However, the average local newsreader doesn't have the time to invest in careful scrutiny and the headlines do convey a sense of progress. Whether that progress is tangible or illusory isn't as important to Clarke's resume building in the short-term as simply continuing to generate proof of life (aka signs of progress) for the project. Sheehy is an historian and author who also delves into the topic of political intrigue and business strategy, at least in the historical context. If he, for any reason, decided to rewrite Mayor Clarke's narrative on the port file in an unfavorable plotline, the mayor could see his branding as a container port advocate take a serious hit. My read on Sheehy is that he is not likely to be someone unaware of his political leverage in the CBRM.

Overall, Clarke has significant risks, but he's far from out of any local race. Completing the second-berth even after a messy and/or expensive land deal combined with a retiring Eyking may clearcut his path to Ottawa as an MP.

If the Federal Liberals can't convince Eyking to stay on, Clarke can bump John Douglas Chiasson out of his chance to go to the big show, and then battle past weakly-developed local Liberal candidates to secure the win. That's not to say Minister Geoff MacLellan shouldn't expect a conference call from Gerald Butts and Justin Trudeau seeking a relief pitcher when Eyking walks off the field. They won't be in any hurry to surrender a safe Liberal seat in Parliament. 

Can Clarke secure one or more big wins in the CBRM, keep his closet allies firmly in his camp, and avoid having any of his political foes tarnish an already limited mayoral resume?

NOTE: The views expressed above are my own and do not represent lokol (goCapeBreton.com). Read more