Smack dab in the middle of a provincial election and I've decided to kick off my brainstorm on who might become the next CBRM mayor.

For most, it would seem like an odd choice of timing on my part. Shouldn't I be picking a side and bashing or defending the Liberals instead?

Well, I think our mayor and council are actually much more important to our future than any MLA or MP, otherwise known as little cheque writers and big cheque writers, respectively.

The MLAs and MPs have two jobs: (1) Vote for whatever their party leadership tells them to vote for, and (2) drop off enough money that they'll get their photo in the paper.

There's a big caveat here. When I say mayor and council are more important to our future, there's an implied competency for the role that I believe we are sorely lacking with the current lot. Of course, there are some exceptions like the much appreciated new councillors Amanda McDougall and "Sandra" Coombes.

Our councillors have the potential to be the key decision makers in how the CBRM is run. They get to oversee its operations, devise the big strategic bets we make, act as leading advocates for smaller communities, and aggressively lobby all levels of government for our needs. For the time being we have a mayor who tries to get a excessively cooperative council to pretend they are awake long enough to vote "yes".

Much will change in the next four years. However, let's take a look at our current councillors and give a rundown on their chances of becoming the CBRM's next mayor. This will be a light review with lots of subjectivity. Your feedback and debate is welcomed and encouraged.

Let's do the list in reverse order from least likely to most likely to become mayor of the CBRM in 2020:

TIE #11, #12: Ivan Doncaster and Esmond "Blue" Marshall

Both men are great community members. Neither are well suited to be councillors in an era when council is expected to play a role in economic development, and evaluate more complex issues. In that regard, these gentlemen are out of their depth. Ivan is an ambassador who is very active at community events in his district. Blue speaks with heartfelt sincerity on behalf of his district. Both seem to enjoy their positions, but neither are likely to even consider a mayoral run.

#10 Jim MacLeod

Jim would not be well received outside of his Whitney Pier base. However, as the oldest councillor who will be almost 80 at the end of this term, it's unlikely that he'd have any desire to take on a role he isn't qualified to do. I've heard it suggested that he considered not re-offering for council during the last election. Jim's cranky demeanor and speaking style appeals to the sense of regional patriotism and tradition, and might resonate with blue collar voters if they paid attention to council. They don't.

#9 Clarence Prince

Clarence is a slightly sharper version of Jim MacLeod. He'll likely re-run for council, because it's a great retirement income bonus and it's fairly easy work. He's extremely unlikely to even contemplate a run for mayor, because it's not easy. He will, however, be a top ally to any old guard mayoral candidate that does decide to run.

#8 George MacDonald

George is on par with Prince in terms of sharpness, but his relaxed and informal language at council makes him seem like he'd be more fun to do 18 holes with, with a case of beer in the cart. George would probably enjoy the idea of the mayoral salary, but is smart enough to know there are few scenarios where he could win it. Whether he comes back to council or not depends on how many of the old guard are still around next time. However, he can't win for mayor. The other likely candidates are much more savvy and better public speakers.

#7 Steve Gillespie

After Steve's tough talk campaign, he backtracked once he ran into opposition from his council members. The weakness he demonstrated is almost certainly not what he expected from himself, but overestimated his own ability to persevere when council pushed back. That lesson will probably linger with him and deter him from running for mayor. He speaks more clearly than Cecil Clarke. However, I predict he'll have an uneventful four years as councillor and will shy away from any ideas about taking a shot at the mayor's job when he sees fellow council members announce their intention.

#6 Earlene MacMullin

Earlene is a strong community advocate in North Sydney and cares immensely. However, she'll be in a similar position to Gillespie in that she will likely simply support one of her colleagues in their run. However, she's also a wildcard over a four year period, if she builds in confidence in her role. My bet is that she'll be a key campaign team member for another higher-ranked council candidate for mayor.

#5 Ray Paruch

Ray is highly effective in his role as Devil's Advocate. In Mayor Clarke's first term as mayor, the public would have been kept in the dark on many issues without Paruch. He's a headline generator, because of his tendency to challenge just about everything, and his snappy quotes don't hurt his cause either. He's as cranky as Jim MacLeod, but he knows his stuff. He comes prepared to every meeting, and offers both tough commentary and tough questions. But Ray likes his role. It's unlikely he'll surrender his council position to risk running for mayor. His time spent poking holes in council issues doesn't spare him much capacity for bringing solutions.

#4 Kendra Coombes

Kendra Coombes is one of only two on council who is actually educated in Political Science. How quickly she develops and builds her public image will dictate whether or not she runs. However, as a lefty activist, her tendency is much more likely to move toward a run for MLA for the NDP. Her activist approach also may not always endear her to others on different political spectrums. However, she cannot be counted out, as she's one of the few that likely has aspirations to advance much further in her political career. As council's youngest, she's also emerging as one of the toughest and most committed to challenging the status quo. By all appearances, she also appears to be doing it with highly successful stress management. It's apparent that she likes her role, even in the midst of challenges.

#3 Eldon MacDonald

I predict Eldon to be the councillor with the strongest desire to sit in the mayor's chair. He'll carry support in Sydney, but has two big problems in councillors ranked #1 and #2. He's flanked by both the old guard and the new guard with strong candidates of each type that can beat him head to head. Bruckschwaiger is a much more cunning strategist and persuasive speaker. MacDougall is smarter, more progressive, and will usurp huge swaths of Eldon's voters in the downtown Sydney area. He's a community man, a good guy, and committed to his role. However, he operates more in the style of an MLA than a good manager or strategist, and he'd be likely to strengthen the Sydney bias that is off putting to other CBRM communities.

#2 Amanda McDougall

Amanda has all the ingredients to be the archetype progressive mayor for the CBRM. She's a smart strategist who's been off the island long enough to gain the perspective that there is life beyond the causeway that we can learn and adapt from too. She is the second councillor who is actually educated in Political Science. She's very measured in her approach and capable of compromise. If any of her colleagues make the mistake of underestimating her, they may be in trouble when the votes come in. They would do well to remember the lesson Kevin Saccary was given when he tried to dismiss her accomplishments, avoid her in public debate, and thought he could leverage the media better than she could. When her CBRM council colleagues interfered with her appointment as Chair to a waste management committee, they learned another lesson. By the time the 2020 election roles around, four years of development may make her the de facto mayoral candidate among her fellow council colleagues who may have their eye on the job.

#1 Darren Bruckschwaiger

Darren is the smartest of the old guard by a long shot, a better strategist, and a more persuasive speaker. But his presence is also felt in his district where he does real work, connects with people, and talks to his constituents in plain language, no BS. It's why he was able to quit council to go out West, cost the CBRM money, and still come back and be safely re-elected. He's also a strong likelihood to run for mayor depending on who else is in the running. After a short time out West, he made it clear that it's not for him. As such, a political career looks likely to be his last career as he heads toward retirement. He won't want to sacrifice a safe council position for a risky mayoral run. But if he thinks he can win and has committments from money backers, he'll be in the hunt. With his communication skills, he'll be viable, and he'll do very well with the abundant blue collar, down to earth voters in the CBRM. Darren's Achilles' Heel will be that he's more of an old school guy. His key issue might be rumblings of equalization. Important though it is, I'm not bullish on the likelihood of him breaking free of traditional strategies. Darren, however, would be much more effective than Cecil Clarke. He's smarter, more strategic, a better communicator, is more persuasive, more sincere, and is likely a much better business negotiator because of all these factors combined. His key threats from fellow councillors are McDougall and Coombes. In a head to head battle with Eldon, the contest would be over by the time the debate took place at Centre 200. TKO for Bruckschwaiger.

Of course, the ranking is for councillors pitted against one another. What we haven't discussed is the many dangerous candidates for mayor that exist outside of council. More to come later.

• For now, what do you think of the ranking?
• Where is my read wrong?
• How would you change the list?

NOTE: The views expressed above are my own and do not represent lokol (goCapeBreton.com). Read more