I'm uncertain. It seems like two Conservatives, Cecil having more charisma but a bad record, and James having little charisma but a limited record. If McDougall-Merrill's voters are going to find a home, it would not have been Archie MacKinnon. So, he may benefit from ABC votes boiling over from Amanda's supporters. Clarke has already started and will be vastly better at organizing traditional campaigns, where as that would not appear to be a big strength for James. Billy Goat Gruff vs Billy Goat Phoney.

You heard it from me first.The Glace Bay Minor Hockey apparatus{players,parents,fans,executive,50/50 draw profile} will be way too much for Cecil or any other candidate for that matter to overcome.For Cecil in particular that will be on top of the sour taste he's left in people's mouths.

But how many 50/50 ticket buyers have any clue who James Edwards is? They have no reason to know who the administrator is.

I named several parts of the apparatus over and above the 50/50 profile: players and former players scattered all over CBRM,parents,coaches,fans.It's a big org with lots of well known folks and lots of tentacles.It can't be underestimated.

Clarke starts with 10,000 votes. Winners need between 20,000 to 30,000, so he is almost halfway there already. Councillors have very little name recognition ... and need to build it months in advance.

That's a great rule of thumb, the Clarke 10k. But, I think it's possible there is a McDougall-Merrill 10k for absolutely anyone that seems even remotely reasonable. Those who voted for her rejected Clarke. Actually... make her transitional votes are only the difference between her tally and Rankin's. There may be ABC and/or Rankin blocks, and then she was able to bring in a new block that will be anti-Cecil.

That is a good observation that there are a large number of ABC votes ... maybe 5k to 10k ... but then you have the vote split probability.

And now he's essentially a Liberal, with Fred Tilley's endorsement. Oh what a tangled web we weave. The Liberals will try to get him in and use him as an attack dog against Houston from within the CBRM, and if he loses they'll run him against Comer or White (Houston's new NSPC blood, versus holdovers and friends like Bain).

Yes vote splitting can be a big issue, it,s what loss Cecil the last election, Archie MacK vote,,,which I would say was mostly taken from Cecil, and if you look at the votes,exract Archie's and you had almost a tie for first. I don,t think Cecil,s campaign realilized that. The big question is where does the ABA vote go.Edwards was just a puppy of her. Time will tell. ,,

My thought is that the Amanda voters transition to Edwards—unless someone else emerges that has more clear alignment with her. Edwards should actually pull some of Cecil's votes from last time out. Archie has diehard fans that aren't moving. Those who now disapprove of Amanda, but still don't like Cecil are going to Edwards were he the only option. That may not be the case. There could be a few that are keeping it under wraps and won't dare say it out loud before they file their paperwork. Maybe I'll jump in tomorrow as the wildcard. ;)

@Barry Smith — From my observation, Archie took votes away from the other candidates, not Clarke. The vote split hurt Amanda Mac not Clarke. What makes you say that Archie took votes from Clarke?

No offense Mathew, but by your comment you don't know the Northsde electric.

@Barry Smith — Perhaps we are not using the same definition of vote splitting? I'm certainly not an expert on the Northside, but my observation is that many were very upset with Clarke about the sale of Archibald's Wharf, among other things. They are ABCs, which by my understanding of vote splitting, would have voted for McDougall, MacEachern, Strasser, or Abbass — if Archie MacKinnon were not running. By voting for Archie, they split the ABC vote, thereby giving Clarke an advantage. If Archie were not running, I think many of his 3,426 votes would have likely been cast for McDougall, giving her a higher margin of victory. If Archie would have won a few thousand more votes, they would have likely come from McDougall, potentially giving Clarke the win. I also believe Clarke has a large group of supporters on the Northside that have been with him for many years and will likely continue to vote for him. If you see it differently, I'm always interested in learning more to help me better understand what's happening on the ground.

In the second Rankin Campaign, we swung 2500 votes on the Northside (D1,2&3), but could not get enough traction in GB & NW, plus Eskasoni and Membertou went solidly for Clarke. However, by the time CC ran against Houston, most of those voters returned to Clarke and the CBRM was one of the few in the province that Houston did not win. Archie's base and his only voter awareness is the Northside, and he ran his Campaign on his huge dislike of Clarke, and Equalization. Considering how little he understood the latter, and most other issues as well, it's amazing that he got 3400 votes, the majority of which came from the Northside. He probably took votes from both candidates.

There's nobody else in the pipeline. No Rankin ready for a surprise announcement or a bureaucrat taking one for a partisan team? I'm blown away there isn't a stronger candidate.

I feel like Archie pulls a demographic that could just as easily have voted for Clarke, or not at all. But, I agree, he had to have collected many of the ABC votes too. I'm not sure if I've been consistent when thinking about it, but I always thought of Archie as taking Clarke votes since he's from the Northside. I think the only thing I can kinda be more confident in is that he's likely to pull around the same vote tally. People who vote for Archie are able to do so because his style of passion (I'm mad as heck and I'm not gonna take it anymore) resonates with them—and it's highly unlikely to be anything related to platform whatsoever. They've learned to distrust the suits and are looking for the common man.

I agree with you 100%,for exactly the same issues.However I was born and raised in Glace Bay and would never underestimate the power of Glace Bay Minor Hockey if in fact they decide to get behind James.Maybe they won't but if so look out.Their influnce is scattered all over CBRM through players and former players and their relatives,coaches,executive,fans,and the media attention the 50/50 gets.People better pay attention to The Bay.

I think that particular organization would be wise to avoid any political endorsements, particularly if it's the candidate himself using the organization he's involved with to create his own endorsement.

Obviously one wouldn't use the name Glace Bay Minor Hockey as an endorsement but one can still use the parts and there are plenty.

Had that conversation...maybe 2028, but maybe some arm twisting would help.

He's pretty impressive as a Councillor.

Top of the heap!

Sorry Mike about the age mistake, but I can tell you with prove he had a "questionable " memory at 65...what,s it like now,? You can promise the moon when you are not in power.

Not sure what you mean by 'Memory', but I can tell you that i spent considerable time with Rankin during the 2016 Campaign and he always had the sharpest mind in the room. And i see him a couple of times a year, and he's still the same. As for 'promises', his track record at New Dawn had successes in all the areas i mentioned; they had more success at community Project Mgmt than any entity i know in CBRM.

Mike are you comparing a non profit assoc. With a real business? It's nowhere near the same boat has Rankin ever had a REAL job? That's why ccbrm is in a mess, council made up on non business people other than a few, example,look at how they screwed up the $15,000 from the province.

I guess the only one that qualifies as having run a for profit business would be Kevin MacEachern or Archie (as a contractor). But for the scale and complexity of primarily services and some product delivery, the clear advantage is Rankin. The 50/50 is successful, as lotteries are a big cultural phenomenon here, but it’s a rather tidy, straightforward administrative task, and not a business. Cecil has none that I’m aware of. Other than selling future broken promises. Haha. Maybe he counts biz owner friends as his indirect experience. ;)

It’s a fair point to note that while experience with business helps inform what the community needs for support (or how to get out of the way), the CBRM itself is not a business, but is similar to New Dawn, with a huge focus and workforce for infrastructure operations.

You seem to think that Glace Bay Minor Hockey is solely a gambling operation as you keep referring to that.You are only fooling yourself and maybe attempting to fool others.

I know precisely what it is. It’s a highly successful long-time fundraiser to raise money to support youth hockey participation with a lottery as the method. It’s important. It’s valuable. It achieved s worthwhile objective. It’s not a business. It produces no product or service. It’s scaled tremendously well, but not complex. The other factor I suggested was simply that the vast majority of folks who purchase tickets would have no idea who Edwards is, or his role. Thus, he can certainly use it in his campaign as an example of good work and management ability, but it wouldn’t be widely known unless he promotes it.

Good for you.You know what the 50/50 is.Most folks do.However that is only one very small part of the job duties of the president of Glace Bay Minor Hockey which seems to escape you,not to mention his other jobs.You are being very deceptive and hopefully people see thru it.

Raymond, I'm not entirely clear on what the sticking point is here. If we can sum it up and close out this thread: it's basically that you believe his involvement with the Glace Bay 50/50 is going to bring a very large amount of votes, and I don't think so. In fairness, it is a great credential/selling point. I just primarily think people know the GB5050 brand, not the administrators. Like most of the candidates, it's an experience that is not a business, even if does indicate valuable experience. However, by comparison to what Rankin led at the New Dawn social enterprise, the management edge is clearly in Rankin's favour, by a long shot. Far, far higher complexity and scale.

You are doing it again.It's not about the 50/50.That's just a small part of his duties as President of GBMH and in fact not the most important one.In fact GBMH is not the issue.It's about the contacts he has thru that not to mention his other life which you conveniently leave out,likely because you know nothing about it.To me you seem to be on a mission to cut all candidates up even before the complete list of candidates comes out.

Agree, I'm trying to quantity how large a group of people "knowing nothing about" his "other life." That's politics. It's not as much who we are, as it is how many people know who we are.

Joe I was referring more to council, remember the mayor only has one vote,Amanda proves the point with no business experience...a train wreak.

In reality, none of them have had business experience. It would certainly be an asset. Amanda wasn't as bad as Clarke. IMO, her biggest mistakes were whenever she acted like Clarke (e.g. his retreat = her council meets at The Lakes; she hires a member of her campaign team as a personal hire for the mayor's office = Clarke did it twice; he put us in bed with the port marketers = she supported staying there as long as Membertou was involved; he vehemently opposed more Equalization funding = she waffled on it after pledging greater support). If she announced today, and they could do a head to head, she'd win again. Clarke can't win by taking her down a notch saying: you can't vote for her again, she was too much like me. ;)

I didn't say Rankin was the perfect candidate, i said he was the best candidate! :) And sadly CBRM IS a non-profit these days, as are all Govts! Rankin's abilties and sucesses in the areas i mentioned are IMO indisputable, but will he be tough enough on the necessary cost-cutting and tight fiscal mgmt? It remains to be seen. But then again, none of the other candidates have any significant business experience either and Clarke conspicuously wasted money during his tenure. I also think that the way Municipal Govt and the MGA is structured, to minimize decision-making ability and create a laborious and unproductive process, would make drive a real business person or entrepreneur crazy!!

I was looking for your name Joe...retreads!!

Some folks will definitely tell you I'm salty! ;)