Cecil Clarke is a career politician. It’s all he knows. In fact, he’s stated before that he considers himself “married to politics”.

He’s certainly been successful politically. Despite his inability to make it to Ottawa thus far, he spent 10 years as an MLA, held several cabinet positions, served as Attorney General, and was Speaker of the House for a year. He’s currently in his second term as mayor of the CBRM.

Clarke’s run against Mark Eyking for MP in 2011 was a big turning point in his career. When Eyking prevailed, Clarke found himself tucked into a consulting position with a local agency until a mayoral run in the Cape Breton Regional Municipality turned out to be a reasonable backup plan a year later. His time in Halifax prepared him. He looked the part, sounded like the real deal, had lots of political support, and was successfully elected.

However, there was a catch-22 that he may not have anticipated. A mayor's role in a region that is very near the bottom of the list of worst economic performing regions in all of Canada isn’t the kind of job a provincial MLA is going to thrive in. Suddenly you’re in charge of everything, and everything is struggling all at once. MLAs aren't cut out for that level of challenge. They need the structure and more limited scope of responsibility the Legislature provides.

The challenge is even more difficult when the person holds only a political skill set and lacks a background in any requisite area of specialty that could enhance their capabilities. Clarke has no significant education or experience in Finance, Law, or Business to speak of outside of the exposure demanded by his role with the Province as an MLA.

As mayor, Clarke’s CBRM administration continued to pay down municipal debt, a process that started before he took office. That approach is a good fit for a “fiscal conservative”. Of course, it also constrained spending in a challenged municipality that definitely felt it.

Then PC leader Jamie Baillie was forced out of the PC leadership after sexual harassment allegations. Although Clarke had already announced his second term as mayor would be his last, Baillie’s early departure may have given Clarke a chance to go after a role he’s said to have coveted earlier in his career. Now he's eying a chance to become Premier in an environment with declining Liberal support under Premier McNeil.

The problem now is that his time as CBRM’s mayor hasn’t been a very good political resume builder. It may have actually harmed his chances at either provincial or federal politics for the future. Firstly, he’s going to have to find a way to defeat Tim Houston, a younger, smarter, rising political star who excels at communications, has real business chops, has unveiled innovative new policies for his platform, and isn’t terrified to admit that the provincial Equalization transfer to the municipalities is “unfair”.

Houston is going to be a major hurdle to overcome, especially when the following 15 signs are strong indicators that Cecil Clarke’s political career may be in big trouble.

#1 He’s on the wrong side of Equalization

In 2004, despite being a Cape Breton MLA, Clarke stayed obedient to the provincial PC government and opposed the CBRM’s attempt to get increased Equalization. He suggested Cape Breton was getting its fair share. Equalization is now surging again in the CBRM, and Clarke isn’t talking about it. He’s more likely to be heard bestowing the virtues of Halifax as the province's economic engine. While that won’t be as harmful to him in Halifax, there are many struggling municipalities in the province in need of more resources. His key rival, Tim Houston, says that Equalization is “unfair” and that he’s working on a recommendation.

#2 The longshot for the container terminal has gone quiet again

There’s a range of beliefs in the chances at the CBRM actually securing a container port. One of the common beliefs stems from Cape Breton’s desperation for jobs and opportunity.  Those of that mindset will support anything that sounds like a lifeline. Another common mindset is shared by those who would love to see it happen and create jobs, but simply don't believe it’s going to happen. The mayor promised an update in early 2018, and we’ve heard nothing of substance since. The file has gone quiet.

#3 The second berth is delayed due to failure to secure the land

The business case for the second berth was always a subject for debate. However, the project is now overdue and at risk of costing the CBRM more than anticipated to complete. Public concerns continue to rise due to the CBRM’s unwillingness to reveal the environmental state of the land. They’ve started an expropriation process since the owner wanted an amount that was 4 times as high as budgeted. However, it’s over schedule, is likely to go over budget, and the public will have an adverse reaction if the land turns out to be even more costly to remediate.

#4 Business Cape Breton pulled the plug

Clarke withdrew the CBRM from the Regional Enterprise Network haphazardly and lost our provincial funding in the process. While the province was recently willing to let the CBRM become their own hybrid version of the REN, the Business Cape Breton chairman, Parker Rudderham and his board, decided that the REN model wasn’t the right one for them to successfully function they way they felt best. With that, they pulled the plug. The loss of that agency is a direct result of Clarke’s gamble withdrawing from the REN, and then trying to negotiate a way back into another version of it. At present, the CBRM has no economic development agency and one of his key allies is out of an executive position as a result.

#5 The CBRM firefighters voted no-confidence

If you want to lose public support quickly, get your firefighters upset with you. While Clarke was getting a boost in his reelection bid on TV news during the Thanksgiving flood of 2016, firefighters were “armpit-deep in black water that was polluted with sewage and home-heating oil” without adequate equipment. In April, they voted no-confidence.

#6 A “pathetic” road repair investment for 2018

Roads are one of the biggest political issues for the average Cape Bretoner. It’s easy to understand why. Every time we get into our car and get bumped around on the roads, it’s an unpleasant reminder of the lack of infrastructure spending. Jamming resources into a single year to claim it was the biggest construction season ever during a mayoral campaign will buy some votes, but the voters quickly figure out the ruse when the CBRM council themselves call the road repair budget “pathetic” in the years following.

#7 Cape Breton Conservatives campaigning against him for the PC leadership

Partisan politics usually like to protect their own. When you lose the support of a large swath of your own party, in your own home region, that’s a major caution flag. Tim Houston has an organized campaign in Cape Breton, has visited several times, and has Cape Breton Conservatives actively promoting him, including the Glace Bay MLA candidate, John White, who came very close to defeating incumbent Liberal MLA Geoff MacLellan in the last election. Why the mutiny at home?

#8 A major decline in CBRM support

John Morgan was a popular mayor. When he won, he won big. While Clarke won his first bid against his primary challenger Rankin MacSween in 2012, in their head to head in 2016, the voters demonstrated their discontent. He may have been saved by a boost from the flood, winning by a margin of under 700 voters. Winning isn’t always all that matters. For the PC party now considering him for their potential leader, they have to factor in that he held only just over 50% support in the CBRM and was on the downward slope in 2016. With all of the other factors, is he really the best shot for the party to have a leader that can help them get to a majority government in the next provincial election? If he’s declining at home, how well can he do in the rest of the province?

#9 His Possible Lack of Confidence in His Leadership Chances

Clarke doesn’t want to be the CBRM mayor anymore. On the very night of his re-election, it was top of mind for him to tell everyone that this would be his last term as mayor. Meanwhile, by declaring as a PC leadership candidate, he made it clear what the job he really wants is. Despite fully intending to leave the CBRM as mayor, he did not resign as mayor when kicking off his campaign for PC leadership. Clinging to his mayoral role while spending the bulk of his focus on his provincial campaign shows a lack of confidence. If he loses the leadership bid, he’ll have a few years to fall back on. However, if his political options dry up, don’t be surprised if he’s suddenly in a position to make a third attempt at returning as the CBRM mayor.

#10 The Amanda McDougall Factor

Anyone who mistook the new councillors elected in 2016 as yearlings who would have trouble getting their legs under them, they were dead wrong in 3 out of 4 cases. McDougall, MacMullin, and Coombes have risen to the challenge, developed their political acumen fast in a trial by fire environment, and have been the effective leaders of the new council. They’re also magnets for media focus. Nonetheless, Mayor Clarke’s political judgement and media savvy were shown to be suspect when he went head to head with McDougall and was schooled in the exchange by a first-year politician who many consider as being on the path to the mayor’s chair herself.

#11 His exposure on the failure to send the “audit” request to the provincial Auditor General

On May 1st, Clarke either proved that he cannot get his job done as mayor while running for the PC leadership, or he was deceptively playing stupid about the status of the audit request. When Councillor McDougall asked for a status update on the motion to request an audit that was approved in February 2018, the mayor first acted as though he didn’t recall what it was about, and played hot potato with CAO Walsh and the clerk. He would add to the explanation as the discussion continued. The request (supposedly) was sent the day afterward on May 2nd. The councillors would be wise to make sure that it was actually sent this time. Not verifying the last time cost them months.

#12 Sometimes, everybody hurts (if they applied for Sustainability funding)

When resources are so limited that you have to be the mayor preceding over a Council that can’t afford to fund so many requests from good community organizations, you can start hemorrhaging support. Take a seat at any production at the Highland Arts Theatre if it's not completely sold out, and find out how many of their patrons will be impressed to know that despite their contributions to the growth and activity of downtown Sydney, their modest bid for funding was rejected.

#13 Flying first class to China

If you ever wanted to get back-handed by a retired miner and lose their respect, tell them you had to fly first class to China because you’re a 50-year-old politician with arthritis. They could be more forgiving for those little luxuries and trips to China if their children weren’t stuck working in Alberta. This may seem minor in the grand scheme of things (in terms of financial damage to the CBRM), but these are the kinds of things that regular people take note of and don’t easily forget.

#14 Not showing up for work

You can’t be a full-time mayor and a full-time PC leadership campaign at the same time. Check out the Cape Breton Spectator for a weekly feature on all the places Clarke travels throughout the week for his campaign. It’s not really a problem for anyone that believes that the CBRM is in good shape and doesn’t need a dedicated mayor. Maybe someone actually thinks that the ship has been righted already.

#15 He lost the flowers

The flowers were nice, but cutting them from the budget was the right idea when it came down to expensive flower pots, or getting much-needed funding to local organizations. But the flowers were symbolic for Clarke. He polls well with senior voters, and they are the type of goodwill gesture towards community beautification that often resonates with retired voters that aren't as focused on the bigger economic issues. It’s also something that he loudly boasted about keeping when he was re-elected. Now they’re another promise unkept.

If Cecil Clarke is able to secure the provincial PC leadership given all of the above, without breaking ground on a container port development, or at least the second berth, he’ll have thrown a Hail Mary touchdown not entirely unlike that of the blond-haired real estate developer who claimed the Whitehouse despite the multitude of warning signs the voters knew about him before election day.

NOTE: The views expressed above are my own and do not represent lokol (goCapeBreton.com). Read more