About three months ago, I offered a light assessment of where present CBRM council members stood in terms of their chances at becoming mayor of the CBRM in 2020. See part I here.

Though we're only in the first year of Cecil Clarke's second term as mayor, within hours of his successful reelection late last year, he let everyone know this was going to be it for him. Whether you're a supporter or a critic of Clarke, if we believe his assertion, then he won't be re-offering.

Knowing this, one of the worst things we can possibly do for the CBRM is try to figure out who we should support for mayor (or encourage them to enter the race) just a few months before the next election. That will be too late. We're on the decline by population and are seeing some very troubling economic indicators in the CBRM. We cannot risk more weak leadership that lacks vision. Continuing mediocre leadership will be devastating to us. The very least we can do is start giving some thought as to who the possible candidates might be, and considering their individual merits.

For Part II of my ranking, I'm excluding the council members from Part I. I want to zero in on some other potential candidates at large. Including the name of a potential candidate on this list doesn't indicate that I'm a supporter or that I'm necessarily suggesting that they have a strong chance of winning.

Some are listed here because *I* believe they can do the job. Others are listed here because *they* might believe they can do the job. Some may discover their name on my list and outright reject any suggestion that they would ever consider stepping forward. To be determined.

Help me identify new candidates. I believe that we're missing out on the opportunity to have candidates from a technology or academic background here in the CBRM. There are some on my radar that I'm refraining from listing as I can't foresee a clear way for anyone to convince them to declare their candidacy. If we're lucky, over the coming months that may change.

The ranking will indicate my very early take on who is most and least viable among those I include. However, it's far too early to suggest that a high degree of accuracy is possible here. With limited information to go on, I'm embracing the inherent subjectivity, and welcoming you all to brainstorm with me.

This is intended to be the start of a conversation and you're hereby officially invited to weigh in.

As a community, let's start thinking about these scenarios early. Oftentimes there will be candidates who would likely sail to easy victory if placed against some of the weaker candidates. However, if we see several strong, viable candidates enter the race together, all else being equal, it'll likely be the most organized (and well funded) campaign that prevails. I'll take their access to money to fund the campaign into consideration in my light assessment. It still matters considerably. It still offers an edge.

I expect this list to provoke discussion. So tell me why I'm right or wrong. Tell me why one candidate should outrank another. Tell me who I missed. Or be bold and tell me why *you* not only plan to run, but expect to win!

As with Part I, I'll offer the list in reverse order from least likely to most likely to become mayor of the CBRM in 2020:

#16 Vince Hall

Hall was a CBRM councillor for 10 years. He was also a mayoral candidate in Halifax. He's primarily on this list because he indicated that he's a possible candidate for mayor in the CBRM in 2020. Hall is new to my radar since I was living in the United States for many years. However, a quick googling provides me enough information to not be overwhelmingly excited about his judgement in the past. His positive elements would be his outspoken style, as well as the fact that he's pursued an education to better prepare himself for another shot at politics. However, if reports of Hall not showing up to council meetings are accurate, he'd have to do a great deal of convincing for me to believe he'd truly be 100% committed to the job. I'm likewise not impressed with current councillor, Blue Marshall, for his no-shows this year. A public servant needs to make committments and the CBRM needs to be their top priority. Hall is a long shot in my opinion, and I'm doubtful that he'll really follow through with a mayoral run despite hinting at it.

#15 Marlene Usher

Usher is the CEO of the Port of Sydney Development Corporation. Despite her role there being uncertain going forward beyond 2020, she's quite unlikely to jump ship. If she's not ready for retirement by that time, she'll still likely have a position waiting for her at ACOA where she was an executive before her port CEO role. Usher's key advantage is that she's been a team player for the Clarke administration, and has a powerful internal CBRM advocate in her sister, Marie Walsh, who is the current Chief Administrative Officer and a mayoral candidate in her own right. She has some powerful potential backers. I don't believe Usher can win, as she does not seem to be very comfortable as a public speaker. She would have a very difficult time in a competitive race with better communicators, especially the stronger female candidates. She would have the backing of many, but I do not think she will run. Head to head with one of the less viable male candidates, however, could see her victory as CBRM mayor become more likely.

#14 Josephine Kennedy

Kennedy was a candidate for MLA running against Alfie MacLeod and gave him a real run for his money. However, in the latest provincial election, she abandoned her position as a Liberal party candidate due to her objections with the direction of the McNeil government. I would have preferred to see her run as an independent candidate, but that was not the case. Kennedy cares about the CBRM and has an itch to serve. Her departure from the Liberal government may make the mayoral position seem like a more compelling political option. In 2020, I believe that the CBRM is going to see a further rise of women leaders, and that momentum may also encourage Kennedy to consider the mayoral race as an option. I'm not sure if her departure from the Liberal party will cost her supporters - especially those who would contribute to her campaign fundraising. My read is that she'd be better suited to a role as MLA. I consider her a long shot, but would not rule her out.

#13 John Whalley

For every day that we don't hear anything from John Whalley, his chances at a successful mayoral run are reduced. Likewise, if he settles his lawsuit against the CBRM under a confidentiality agreement, he'll abandon the public trust that he could otherwise earn. Calling out the Cecil Clarke administrator for "conflict of interest" and alleging "constructive dismissal" when they pulled the port file out of his hands positions him as a protector of the public interest. However, allowing that matter to be settled without pushing the fight to the end, or not letting the public know the final result, will kill his chances. Whalley will be able to put together a resume that makes him viable. He looks like a young mayor. He has the right image. However, his voice lacks authority when he speaks, and he would need to work on communications to present himself as a stronger leadership option for CBRM voters. A mayoral run could ultimately be his only way to get back to a role with the CBRM. Since he's largely a behind-the-scenes operator at New Dawn, there isn't any information to suggest how long term he might be with that organization that I can ascertain.

#12 Paul Carrigan

Carrigan is the current General Manager of the Port of Sydney Development Corporation. He's highly unlikely for the run as he seems quite enthusiastic about his role with the Port of Sydney. However, he would have a lot of support from Cecil Clarke's voting block. If the second berth for the cruise line is successfully completed in 2018 or 2019, the one key accomplishment of Cecil Clarke will be at Carrigan's operation and would become the key focal point of his campaign. He's a confident speaker, doesn't back down from resistence or critique, and is much more engaging in discussion than anyone in the Clarke administration, despite consistently staying on message and backing his team. He would have an early edge on some other candidates, because of his advantageous approximation to the mayor and cruise development. He's certainly developing a strong network, and I believe he's trusted within it as a dedicated team player.

#11 Nigel Kearns

Kearns is hands down one of the CBRM's most passionate, and creative individuals. He's intrigued by great concepts sourced from all over the world, from more than just the hipster-in-the-cafe conversation sense. He wants these things to happen and believes they can. Give him a position of influence, and they will. With a down-to-earth, fun, open personality and an insistence on what we "can do", not what we "can't do", he would lead the CBRM into new directions never explored before. A caveat with people characterized by immense creativity is sometimes a stereotypical sense of disorganization. However, Kearns, is a specialist in execution of fast paced, highly complex event delivery that his relaxed image might otherwise not convey. He knows how to pitch and package ideas, and he includes within these formulated ideas an assessment of the economic feasibility of pulling everything together. Of all the candidates, Kearns is the most capable of leading the CBRM in a direction that would make it an innovative, artistic, interesting place to live and to visit. However, for those who believe the Cecil Clarke method of mayoral governance is the way to go, it will be difficult for Kearns to pull their votes. He'll have a harder time racking up votes from senior voters who don't have any pressing need for a more interesting and innovative CBRM. If he did run, he'll be the most interesting candidate, and he'll score highest on the enthuasism meter and lowest on the BS-meter. Underestimate this man at your own risk (of being wrong).

#10 Dan Christmas

Senator Christmas could take a run at the CBRM mayor's spot. If he did and won, it would be an historical moment for First Nations in the CBRM. Membertou continues to be the most effective community within the CBRM at actual development we can witness. They are getting stuff done there. Membertou's leaders, be it Chief Terry Paul or Senator Dan Christmas, will always be able to offer a strong proposition that they can help the greater CBRM follow a better development pattern. However, in a mayoral run, they also must face resistence from voters who, through prejudice or jealousy, would not vote for a First Nations candidate. Ultimately, I suspect that both Christmas and Paul will choose to maintain their momentum and continued success within their First Nations community and will not consider a mayoral run.

#9 Mike Johnson

I believe Johnson is one of the most powerful dark horse candidates we have. Success for him would depend on him really embracing the idea of a run early, and letting the CBRM public have time to get to know him. As a retired executive, when speaking with the man he evokes a sense of high integrity and professionalism. He's smart, strategic, balanced, and thoughtful. And he is aware of the importance and art of communications. Johnson is a man who would like to enjoy his retirement with his family. Yet, I believe that he sees how things are mismanaged in the CBRM and his management experience gives him the concidence that *if* he were in a leadership role here, he could bring about better results for us. His chances will be dampened if he announces late. However, if the CBRM has an opportunity to get to know this man, they will be very impressed, as I am. He would likely be one of the best candidates at lobbying the province.

#8 Madonna Doucette

Doucette ran against Momborquette for MLA and likely gave him the scare of his life, all the way down to the final poll box counts. She'd suffer by her attachment to the less popular NDP party. However, she has advantages in being one of the few candidates who can actually understand the struggles of people living in Cape Breton. She's a single mother and has experienced poverty in her life. In the absense of other strongly affiliated NDP candidates, she would have the advantage of pulling the majority of NDP votes CBRM wide. Her campaign would be well supported, with the same team in place. She'd also have the backing of the LGBT community. She's viable depending on her match up. However, I feel that she would be most suited to a MLA role. I like the idea of her fighting on our behalf in Halifax.

#7 Manning MacDonald

Like a retired boxer, you never know when an ex-politician will feel the draw of the ring again. Manning is too old guard for my liking. However, his support of the successful re-election campaign of Cecil Clarke could have given him a taste for a return to his mayoral duties. He would pull a lot of votes from the older demographic, and could match Cecil Clarke in fundraising. He's no sure thing to win, but you can't discount someone who knows the local political game so well.

#6 Parker Rudderham

Rudderham is a prominent member of the business community with a diverse investment portfolio of restaurants, commercial real estate, pharmaceuticals, hemp oil production, and media as owner of Frank Magazine. Typically, it's difficult to convince successful business persons to enter politics while still actively building their businesses. However, when he was recently declared the Chair of the Board of Business Cape Breton, it became evident that Rudderham also has some interest in getting involved in the community. His role at Business Cape Breton elevates him to the watch list. He would be one of the few candidates who would be capable of self-funding his entire campaign. He's backed CBRM mayor and council candidates with large personal campaign donations before. His interest in politics is evident. It remains to be seen if he would be interested in taking on the highest profile role in the CBRM. The key for his success would be emphasizing his success in business and his role at Business Cape Breton. He would have to convince voters that a business mind inside the CBRM would lead to tangible economic development and the resulting jobs that come with it.

#5 Geoff MacLellan

MacLellan is a currently serving MLA, so he won't be running for mayor. However, White gave him a run for his money that hammered away at that image of immense popularity and otherwise invincibility. Though he won't enter the race, he would be a top tier candidate. Like it or not, voters still vote for popular, charismatic leaders. MacLellan would pull hardcore Liberal supporters, along with much of Glace Bay, as well as many other residents of the CBRM who will have long since forgotten all about the teachers' work to rule action and legislated contract or the last minute promise of a downtown campus of the Nova Scotia Community College (Marconi). Derek Momborquette was close to being in this same scenario, but would lose in most matchups. He doesn't speak as well or have the same level of charisma that MacLellan possesses in front of the cameras. Having just narrowly missed losing his MLA position (and pension eligibility with it), Mombourquette will never risk giving up his MLA seat voluntarily.

#4 John Morgan

Mayor Morgan's radio silence is probably a strong indication he'll never enter politics again. However, he was a very popular mayor at the voting box. Purchasing the greenfield site won't hurt him since Clarke has been elected twice with port development being a key part of his platform. His bold move with attempting legal action against the province for a fair equalization distribution was likely one of the boldest actions in recent CBRM history. It suffered from the inability of equalization advocates to explain the disparity in simple terms that will maintain the public's attention. Morgan may not want to run again, but he'd be a front runner the moment he put on his best tie and made the announcement. Few will offer the number of media storylines that come built in with the return of John Morgan. He has the press advantage locked up.

#3 Erika Shea

Shea is the Vice President at New Dawn, and she is immensely intelligent. She is the kind of young, progressive, female executive that could lead the CBRM in a new direction. While her resume looks solid, I believe she currently lacks the name recognition CBRM wide. It would be a big mistake for her not to announce, fundraise, and get rolling early. However, she also has a special advantage. She's directly connected to the most talented group of young professional Cape Bretoners with large networks and considerable abilities at marketing. These supporters can get a campaign team up and rolling fast and effectively. If Shea announces early enough, no other candidate will be assured victory against her. All of them will be in trouble, though many will likely underestimate her to their detriment at the voting box.

#2 Marie Walsh

Walsh would have a geniune resume to take on the role of mayor. As an executive who deals with the behind the scenes complexities, she doesn't yet have a highly developed communication ability, and that would hurt her chances. However, what she does have is authority. There's no denying that her knowledge of the interworkings of the CBRM would be of benefit. It's a bit like the scenario where a lawyer's legal assistant, or a CEO's administrative assistant often run much of the show - despite not getting the credit. However, Walsh has a Finance background. As such, I don't anticipate her taking a paycut from making just under $200,000, to the mayor's *presently* much lower salary and much greater level of stress. She'll likely retire as CAO of the CBRM. Walsh would be much more qualified than her sister, Usher. Though a head to head won't happen, Walsh would win the matchup by no less than 80% of the vote total. She could also scare off other candidates from entering the race.

#1 Rankin MacSween

MacSween took Cecil Clarke right to the edge in their second matchup. He was leading Clarke in early online voting. I think it's quite likely that Clarke was saved by the Floodsgiving storm that gave Clarke a well-timed showcase as a leader in the media. When discussing the Municipal Planning Strategy that had been ignored by Clarke as his predessors, the Cape Breton Post ran an unfair headline that shifted public opinion against MacSween. They corrected the headline, but not before the damage was done. MacSween would be an early favorite if he announced again for 2020. However, he's getting up there in years and may choose to focus on his efforts at New Dawn where they are steadily making tangible process. He also knows that he has at least two candidates in his immediate circle that could be candidates in their own right (Shea, Whalley). I don't think he'll run. If he does, he'll eliminate much of his competition right out of the gate as they'll believe they can't win and decide not to enter the race.

NOTE: The views expressed above are my own and do not represent lokol (goCapeBreton.com). Read more