The Next CBRM Mayor - Ranking for January 2018

Joe Ward Follow Me

Posted this 2018-01-14 12:16 PM AST (updated 2018-01-17 8:37 PM AST)

Last year I set out to begin identifying new mayoral candidates for the Cape Breton Regional Municipality. It's a priority. Afterall, Mayor Cecil Clarke told his supporters that it was his last term as mayor on the very night of his narrow (but nonetheless successful) re-election victory.

So it's evident that if we are to get a good (and preferably great) candidate as our next mayor, the process needs to start very early. A last-minute scramble simply won't do. That would only increase the probability of getting stuck with someone popular but incompetent, or well funded and deeply seated inside someone's pocket. Neither of those two types of candidates will likely achieve anything significant for the CBRM or our island. But they are certainly electable if we don't prepare now, start vetting candidates and start convincing the best of them to enter the ring.

Mayor Cecil Clarke's self-confessed marriage to politics and yearning for higher office is far from secret. Many speculated that he'd either drop out to run for a Federal MP position or the provincial PC leadership in Nova Scotia. The latter of the two now seems to be his current focus, though I personally predicted the former would be a bigger prize and a more strategic bet for him. Languishing at the provincial level is sort of the flying coach version of a political career for the politically ambitious, whereas achieving a role in Ottawa may literally have him flying first class to get there.

With no clear standouts in the race to replace PC leader Jaime Baillie, it's quite possible Clarke will prevail in his bid - and depart from his mayoral office ahead of schedule.

This means we may need a ready-to-go mayoral candidate much earlier than otherwise anticipated.

About 8 months ago, my first ranking speculated on the chances of success for current CBRM councillors if they chose to run. About 5 months ago, my second ranking followup started identifying possible candidates outside of council (even if unpopular or unlikely or firmly committed to a bigger role). I believe it's important to think about the characteristics of candidates even if some of the options have next to zero chance of considering a mayoral run. Some candidates have been polarizing and draw out criticism. In such cases, it should become evident to the critic of how important it is to identify and promote alternative candidates.

It's not that complex: In the absence of those individuals we'd like to win, we may end up with those we might not like to win as our next mayor.

That's the purpose of this exercise. Identify your candidates before it's too late.

In this installment, I do not intend to introduce new candidates although that is a possibility for future updates. There are some very interesting potential candidates out there. For now, I'll focus on merging both ranking lists and providing my estimate of how their chances of winning, relative to one another, have changed. Almost a year has gone by since my first rankings, and we're now into the new year.

From my perspective, several candidates have greatly increased their profile, while others have underperformed or made significant missteps. One candidate, in particular, has shot to my #1 ranking even faster than expected. She was pushed into the spotlight multiple times and showed what she was made of every time. When she became repeatedly targeted, people in the media and all around the CBRM community immediately recognized what they were seeing was a new era of strong leadership that was giving them renewed confidence in our future.

While I have a thoughtful basis for my rankings, I don't expect you to agree on all of them. However, I do invite you to give your opinion. If you disapprove of the ranking or think someone is missing from the list, please comment and let me know. I'll consider your suggestions for the next installment.

The inclusion of an individual here does not represent my personal endorsement, though there are certainly candidates on the list that I would very strongly support.

The CBRM Mayoral Candidate Ranking - January 2018

#28 Jim MacLeod 🔻 ---
#27 George MacDonald 🔻 Relies too much on humour, sometimes appearing not to take issues seriously enough.
#26 Esmond "Blue" Marshall A committed voice for First Nations, but sometimes loses focus on his role as councillor for District 3/CBRM. Compassionate, but not strong enough on issues.
#25 Ivan Doncaster 🔼 Shows signs he's paying attention to progressive councillors and would be open to supporting them with his vote. Very popular in his district for community participation.
#24 Vince Hall ---
#23 Clarence Prince 🔼 The most expressive of the four councillors that were a part of the port board controversy.
#22 Steve Gillespie Has fallen into a pattern of playing it too safe after facing opposition to his bid to eliminate the $140 travel expense policy and then backing off. With an active career in sales as an account executive with a local radio station, he may feel compelled to avoid too much controversy as it could potentially have an impact on some of his advertiser relationships.
#21 Josephine Kennedy Vocal within her network and community. Her willing departure from Liberal party graces may have her in a bit of political limbo. She could run as an independent MLA, or seek another role including CBRM mayor.
#20 Marlene Usher Powerful connections always keep her in play should her position with the Port of Sydney Dev Corp or ACOA fall through. If they don't, she's unlikely to depart from either position as she readies for retirement.
#19 John Whalley Not enough visibility in the public; and no recent status updates on his lawsuit against the CBRM. How much of an influence he has at New Dawn is uncertain, but he was a high ranking insider at the CBRM who knows its inner workings, both good and bad.
#18 Mike Johnson 🔻 Focused primarily on landowner rights that are getting abused by railway, NS Power; and neglected by gov reps. He's in an ongoing process of pushing for change in the policies that are preventing the full use of taxpayer land and thereby discouraging much-needed development that would expand our tax base.
#17 Manning MacDonald He'll be impacted by the falling stock of Cecil Clarke who he helped elect, but always has a shot with a demographic shifted towards seniors who see him as a familiar face for their generation. His level of idleness in retirement and financial security are probably the biggest factors that would influence him stepping up as a candidate if that was to happen.
#16 Eldon MacDonald🔻 Hasn't been as promising as his pre-2016 council presence. This past year, he largely fell into the shadow of progressive councillors who fought harder than he did for the change we need. Hopefully, his role of Deputy Mayor didn't cause him to try to be more "parliamentary" and, in so doing, begin to play it a little safer than he needs to.
#15 Paul Carrigan 🔼 Likely the best communicator among the group of allies consisting of the mayor, port executives, and CBRM executives, though his visibility is mostly within his private network. He's willing to communicate, even with critics, and does so thoughtfully while staying true to his personal values and positions.
#14 Nigel Kearns 🔼 Likely the most creative potential candidate who actively researches innovation and new business opportunities, and supports anyone who is trying to get started when they reach out to him. He also has a wealth of knowledge and insight on improving communities, making them a better place to live. Highly connected to others who share a similar mindset.
#13 Madonna Doucette Seemingly keeping a lower profile after her MLA election bid against Momborquette. She could be the voice of those among us who struggle the most. We need that kind of empathy.
#12 Parker Rudderham He uses financial resources from his successful business enterprises to pursue new ones. As a significant financial donor to political campaigns, he is very well known and certainly capable of strategic influence. As the chair of Business Cape Breton, building a strong mayoral resume would require significant successes coming out of that organization to demonstrate that he can create wins for the CBRM business community. TBD. However, with a lucrative new business enterprise currently expanding (cannabidiol oil for pharmaceutical markets), he's unlikely to shift his focus to politics beyond BCB. As the owner of the media enterprise Frank Magazine, that is his one business brand that is the most polarizing in the community and has the potential to draw significant criticism once a mayoral race heated up if he were to enter.
#11 Darren Bruckschwaiger🔻🔻 Has caused more friction for progressive councillors than anticipated, therefore significantly underperforming expectations.
#10 Ray Paruch Unlike his counterpart, he's embraced the progressive councillors and has supported them. He hasn't given any indication that he's resentful of their rise to be the strongest challengers of CBRM issues. Instead, he works with them and shows his appreciation for having others beginning to take their roles as representatives of the CBRM seriously.
#9 Marie Walsh🔻🔻 Though she is very intelligent, speaks well and is assertive, she gives the impression she is simply following the mayor's direction. She's a bit too status quo at present, but certainly has resources and connections. It would be interesting to see how well she would perform as CAO under a progressive mayor.
#8 Kendra Coombes A progressive councillor who brings issues forward, fights for them, doesn't back down and provides support for her colleagues who are also committed to change. Long-term, she's a sure bet to challenge for higher political office.
#7 Earlene MacMullin Her confidence continues to rise fast revealing how strong of a community advocate she really is. She respects the council etiquette but isn't afraid of advancing her positions. She's a progressive and is beginning to utilize her power, as a councillor, to initiate motions to help resolve issues and create accountability. Though impressive already, as a freshman councillor without a political background, I suspect she's only performing at about 60% of her full capabilities, and we'll see continued impressive actions from her 2018. It's exciting to watch her at council. She doesn't aspire to seek the mayoral office, but there are many that would support her doing so.
#6 Geoff MacLellan He's a popular young MLA and minister with charisma. He'll always be viable and has the opportunity to undo the damage due to Liberal controversy in the last election. However, he likely understands that he's in the pathway to becoming premier or replacing Rodger Cuzner as Federal MP whenever he decides to call it quits.
#5 John Morgan He was a popular mayor, ready to make big moves and take on the biggest challenges. That's a particularly valuable personal brand to have in a time when people are reigniting the discussion on equalization and even going so far as to consider the idea of Cape Breton becoming its own province. If he took a reignited interest in local politics, he's a wildcard that can't be ignored and certainly has thousands of voters fully ready to support him.
#4 Erika Shea One of the smartest young leaders in the CBRM by far, her visibility is rising. If she doesn't run for mayor, she should run and win the District 5 council seat to ensure another progressive council vote is secured. A protege of Rankin MacSween with her own capabilities that cannot be underestimated.
#3 Rankin MacSween🔻 A community leader who took Clarke to the edge and lost by a storm combined with an irresponsible Cape Breton Post headline. He's developing young leaders like Erika Shea to be the future of the CBRM. If he doesn't run, he'll likely throw the full weight of his support behind a progressive candidate and will deliver a voting block that is about 50% of all active CBRM voters. Likewise, they are sitting in wait for him, if he chose to pursue another mayoral bid.
#2 Dan Christmas 🔼🔼 A popular leader for his outstanding work with Membertou along with Chief Terry Paul. As a Senator he will not run for mayor. However, if he did, he's a de facto top candidate on day 1 of his announcement. Had he not be appointed to the Senate, it may well have been a future option for him here in the CBRM. His suggestions that Cape Breton should consider the possibility of becoming its own province re-ignited the passions of those who believe we can influence our own destiny by taking full control.
#1 Amanda McDougall 🔼 🔼 🔼 The fastest rising star among young progressive leaders in the CBRM. McDougall has been targeted by senior council members and the mayor on multiple occasions, yet maintains her professionalism and won't back down from her convictions. Her recent exchange with the mayor exposed him as thin-skinned when parliamentary and political science experts weighed in to suggest the mayor had actually misused his point of order and point of privilege to go after McDougall. When he attempted to do so in a private meeting, she and her progressive colleagues fearlessly forced the discussion into the public council session. She's one of our municipalities strongest advocates for immigration and has already been invited to Ottawa to provide expertise on immigration policy as a regional stakeholder. Sentiment within local social media discussions is that Amanda McDougall is now a leading candidate for mayor, in terms of someone that members of the CBRM community see as being the right fit for the role. Though educated in political science, unlike Mayor Clarke, she isn't married to it. Her strongest bond is with her CBRM community. Her political abilities are just the among the many skills she uses effectively to serve them better.